Likelihood

Likelihood: An estimate of how likely it is that a defined risk scenario will occur. It supports transparent, risk-based decisions when assumptions, evidence, and acceptance criteria are documented.

How it works and where it fits

Likelihood creates a traceable framework for security decisions. Scope, assumptions, evaluation criteria, responsibilities, and expected outcomes are made explicit. It is therefore more than documentation: it connects business objectives and protection needs to concrete controls, accepted residual risks, and verifiable evidence.

Practical security relevance

Effectiveness requires an accountable owner, periodic review, and measurable criteria. Decisions should use current data, while exceptions record rationale, duration, and compensating measures. Audits and metrics should test not only whether a requirement formally exists, but whether it is applied in daily work and actually reduces the intended risk.

Related concepts

• Risk AssessmentRisk AssessmentIdentifies, analyzes, and assesses threats, vulnerabilities, and impacts.: Identifies, analyzes, and assesses threats, vulnerabilities, and impacts.
• Cyber RiskCyber RiskThe possibility that a cyber threat will cause harm to systems, data, people, or business objectives.: The possibility that a cyber threat will cause harm to systems, data, people, or business objectives.
• ImpactImpactThe consequence a security event or risk scenario would have for an organization or system.: The consequence a security event or risk scenario would have for an organization or system.
• Residual RiskResidual RiskThe risk remaining after controls and treatment measures have been applied.: The risk remaining after controls and treatment measures have been applied.